Canonical URL: https://giftcard.news/research-trends/visa-forecasts-4-6-increase-in-us-retail-sales-for-2025-holiday-season-811b8ef2212c/ --- description: Visa Business and Economic Insights forecasts a 4.6% year-over-year increase in total US retail sales for the 2025 holiday season, with shoppers planning to spend an average of $736 on holiday gifts. title: Visa Forecasts 4.6% Increase in US Retail Sales for 2025 Holiday Season image: https://giftcard.news/images/social/v1/visa-forecasts-4-6-increase-us-retail-sales-2025-holiday-season-ec968399201c7771a0c6565f8d608509.jpg --- 1. [Home](https://giftcard.news/) 2. [Research & Trends](https://giftcard.news/research-trends/) # Visa Forecasts 4.6% Increase in US Retail Sales for 2025 Holiday Season Visa Business and Economic Insights forecasts a 4.6% year-over-year increase in total US retail sales for the 2025 holiday season, with shoppers planning to spend an average of… By [Emma Carter](https://giftcard.news/author/emma-carter/) October 31, 2025 2 min read Share [ ](https://x.com/intent/post?url=https%3A%2F%2Fgiftcard.news%2Fresearch-trends%2Fvisa-forecasts-4-6-increase-in-us-retail-sales-for-2025-holiday-season-811b8ef2212c%2F%3Futm%5Fsource%3Dx%26utm%5Fmedium%3Dsocial&text=Visa%20Forecasts%204.6%25%20Increase%20in%20US%20Retail%20Sales%20for%202025%20Holiday%20Season "X") [ ](https://www.linkedin.com/sharing/share-offsite/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fgiftcard.news%2Fresearch-trends%2Fvisa-forecasts-4-6-increase-in-us-retail-sales-for-2025-holiday-season-811b8ef2212c%2F%3Futm%5Fsource%3Dlinkedin%26utm%5Fmedium%3Dsocial "LinkedIn") [ ](https://wa.me/?text=Visa%20Forecasts%204.6%25%20Increase%20in%20US%20Retail%20Sales%20for%202025%20Holiday%20Season%20https%3A%2F%2Fgiftcard.news%2Fresearch-trends%2Fvisa-forecasts-4-6-increase-in-us-retail-sales-for-2025-holiday-season-811b8ef2212c%2F%3Futm%5Fsource%3Dwhatsapp%26utm%5Fmedium%3Dsocial "WhatsApp") ![Two adults and a child shopping together, with shopping bags and a blue graphic overlay.](https://giftcard.news/images/variants/v1/visa-forecasts-4-6-increase-us-retail-sales-2025-holiday-season-two-w1200.webp) Photo: Source: Visa According to an announcement by [Visa](https://giftcard.news/company/visa/) Business and Economic Insights on October 31, 2025, American consumers are expected to spend more during the 2025 holiday season despite economic uncertainty. The annual holiday forecast for the US predicts a 4.6% year-over-year increase in total retail sales, excluding automotive dealers, gas stations, and restaurants, from November 1 to December 31, 2025. However, after accounting for inflation on holiday items, real spending is expected to rise just 2.2% this year, down from the 2.5% real spending that occurred last season. Consumers reported in the October 2025 VBEI quarterly consumer survey that they plan to spend an average of $736 on holiday gifts, marking Your free reader account ## Continue reading for free. Create your account or sign in to get unlimited access. 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Sign in](https://giftcard.news/login/?returnTo=%2Fresearch-trends%2Fvisa-forecasts-4-6-increase-in-us-retail-sales-for-2025-holiday-season-811b8ef2212c%2F) ## Sources and documents ExpandCollapse * [TRENDS AND INSIGHTS Holiday spending stays strong despite economic headwinds](https://corporate.visa.com/en/sites/visa-perspectives/trends-insights/2025-holiday-spending-outlook.html?utm%5Fsource=giftcard.news) — corporate.visa.com ## In this article ### Companies * [Visa](https://giftcard.news/company/visa/) Share [ ](https://x.com/intent/post?url=https%3A%2F%2Fgiftcard.news%2Fresearch-trends%2Fvisa-forecasts-4-6-increase-in-us-retail-sales-for-2025-holiday-season-811b8ef2212c%2F%3Futm%5Fsource%3Dx%26utm%5Fmedium%3Dsocial&text=Visa%20Forecasts%204.6%25%20Increase%20in%20US%20Retail%20Sales%20for%202025%20Holiday%20Season "X") [ ](https://www.linkedin.com/sharing/share-offsite/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fgiftcard.news%2Fresearch-trends%2Fvisa-forecasts-4-6-increase-in-us-retail-sales-for-2025-holiday-season-811b8ef2212c%2F%3Futm%5Fsource%3Dlinkedin%26utm%5Fmedium%3Dsocial "LinkedIn") [ ](https://wa.me/?text=Visa%20Forecasts%204.6%25%20Increase%20in%20US%20Retail%20Sales%20for%202025%20Holiday%20Season%20https%3A%2F%2Fgiftcard.news%2Fresearch-trends%2Fvisa-forecasts-4-6-increase-in-us-retail-sales-for-2025-holiday-season-811b8ef2212c%2F%3Futm%5Fsource%3Dwhatsapp%26utm%5Fmedium%3Dsocial "WhatsApp") ![Portrait of Emma Carter](https://giftcard.news/images/variants/v1/emma-carter-editorial-portrait-w320.webp) About the author ## [Emma Carter](https://giftcard.news/author/emma-carter/) Journalist — Retail & E-commerce Emma Carter covers retail, e-commerce and the gift card shopping experience for Gift Card News. From reading to building ## Your next move in gift cards. Tell us what you’re building. We’ll help you explore suitable providers. [Find a provider ](https://giftcard.news/find-a-provider/) ## Related articles [Research & Trends](https://giftcard.news/research-trends/) Analysis ### [AI Can Shop for You. Can It Spend Your Gift Cards?](https://giftcard.news/research-trends/ai-can-shop-for-you-can-it-spend-your-gift-cards/) [Oliver Reed](https://giftcard.news/author/oliver-reed/) September 17, 2026 17 min [Research & Trends](https://giftcard.news/research-trends/) Analysis ### [Gift Card Fraud in the United States](https://giftcard.news/research-trends/gift-card-fraud-in-the-united-states/) [Oliver Reed](https://giftcard.news/author/oliver-reed/) September 17, 2026 66 min [Research & Trends](https://giftcard.news/research-trends/) Analysis ### [Can You Cash Out Your Gift Card? 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