Deloitte expects Canadian gift and gift-card budgets to fall 5%

Canadian consumers expect to cut combined spending on gifts and gift cards by 5% this holiday season, according to Deloitte Canada ’s 2026 Holiday Retail Outlook, released October 14. [S01] The report puts the average combined budget at C$429, compared with C$450 in 2025. Total expected holiday spending across the listed categories falls 14%, from C$1,521 to C$1,305, making the decline in the gifting category smaller than the overall pullback. [S03] The gift-card result has a defined boundary Deloitte reports actual gift products, gift cards and gift certificates together. The reviewed report does not split their budgets, so the 5% figure cannot be read as a standalone forecast for Canadian gift-card sales. It also does not establish the share allocated to cards. [S03] Planned gifts and gift-card budget in Canada Average planned spending on actual gift products, gift cards and gift certificates combined, from figure 1.5 of Deloitte Canada’s 2026 report. Combined gifts and gift-card budget 2025: 450 CAD 2026: 429 CAD Consumer intentions, not completed sales. The 2026 survey covered more than 1,000 Canadian consumers and ran August 28-September 4. This combined category does not establish a separate gift-card budget or sales forecast. The published year-on-year decline is rounded to 5%. Deloitte Canada, 2026 Holiday Retail Outlook, page 9 For retailers and issuers planning holiday programmes, the finding points to pressure on the wider gifting budget while preserving uncertainty about which products consumers will choose within it. A decline in the combined category alone does not establish that shoppers will switch from physical gifts to cards, or the reverse. Value shapes the purchase decision The survey finds