Mastercard projected that Canadian in-store spending would increase 2.8% between November 1 and December 24, 2023. Its November 13 holiday outlook expected consumers to keep seeking physical shopping experiences while looking for ways to stretch budgets.
Electronics had the strongest projected sector increase at 3.9%. Clothing and jewelry were expected to soften compared with a year earlier. The forecast also anticipated 3.4% growth in restaurant spending and 3.1% in groceries as households celebrated at home and outside it.
SpendingPulse combines Mastercard network activity with estimates for other payment methods. The comparison below retains the original release period and definitions; it describes retail spending rather than gift-card sales, redemption or Mastercard revenue. The public release does not give the underlying transaction count, model parameters or uncertainty intervals.
Selected Canadian holiday sector forecasts for 2023
Forecast published November 13, 2023 for November 1-December 24, 2023 versus the same dates in 2022.
% year-over-year spending growth
Tap or hover for details. All values are also available in the data table.
Source
Selected sector spending forecasts, not adjusted for inflation. The bars do not sum to total retail growth and do not measure gift-card sales or the effect of promotional offers.
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| Category | % year-over-year spending growth |
|---|---|
| Electronics | 3.9 % year-over-year spending growth |
| Restaurants | 3.4 % year-over-year spending growth |
| Grocery | 3.1 % year-over-year spending growth |
Online sales were expected to be weaker overall than in 2022, but Mastercard predicted a peak during the weekend before Christmas. Shorter delivery expectations, Black Friday promotions and last-minute purchases were all factors in the projected shopping pattern.
The company said stores could compete through staff service, exclusive promotions and gifts with purchases. SpendingPulse covered multiple payment methods and did not adjust for inflation. These were expectations for the 2023 season, rather than final sales measurements.
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Maya Bennett
Maya Bennett covers customer loyalty, employee rewards and incentive programmes for Gift Card News.