Mastercard projected that Canadian in-store spending would increase 2.8% between November 1 and December 24, 2023. Its November 13 holiday outlook expected consumers to keep seeking physical shopping experiences while looking for ways to stretch budgets.

Electronics had the strongest projected sector increase at 3.9%. Clothing and jewelry were expected to soften compared with a year earlier. The forecast also anticipated 3.4% growth in restaurant spending and 3.1% in groceries as households celebrated at home and outside it.

Online sales were expected to be weaker overall than in 2022, but Mastercard predicted a peak during the weekend before Christmas. Shorter delivery expectations, Black Friday promotions and last-minute purchases were all factors in the projected shopping pattern.

The company said stores could compete through staff service, exclusive promotions and gifts with purchases. SpendingPulse covered multiple payment methods and did not adjust for inflation. These were expectations for the 2023 season, rather than final sales measurements.