Mastercard projected that Canadian retail spending excluding vehicles would rise 5.7% between November 25 and December 24, 2022. Its November 17 outlook expected online sales to increase 3.8% over the same holiday period a year earlier.

The forecast emphasized a return to late gift buying as supply constraints eased and consumers regained more freedom to visit stores. Mastercard expected spending to increase 24% on December 23 and 17.5% on Christmas Eve compared with the corresponding days in 2021.

Jewelry and leather goods were among the categories expected to benefit from last-minute purchases. Clothing and electronics were also projected to attract gift shoppers close to Christmas, even though electronics spending was forecast to fall on Black Friday and Boxing Day.

Mastercard said higher interest rates and other economic pressures were encouraging shoppers to stretch budgets. Its SpendingPulse projections included multiple payment methods and were not inflation-adjusted. The announcement set out expectations for specific dates in 2022 rather than confirmed sales outcomes.