Mastercard forecast that Canadian retail spending would increase 2.2% during November 1 to December 24, 2024. Its November 20 SpendingPulse outlook expected physical stores to outperform online sales as consumers searched for promotions and ways to manage holiday budgets.
Electronics was the strongest of the highlighted gift categories, with spending projected to rise 4.2%. Mastercard pointed to new devices and lower prices as possible drivers. It also forecast 2.5% growth for clothing and 2.6% for jewelry and accessories.
SpendingPulse combines Mastercard network activity with estimates for other payment methods. The comparison below retains the original release period and definitions; it describes retail spending rather than gift-card sales, redemption or Mastercard revenue. The public release does not give the underlying transaction count, model parameters or uncertainty intervals.
Selected Canadian gift-sector forecasts for 2024
Forecast published November 20, 2024 for November 1-December 24, 2024 versus the same dates in 2023.
% year-over-year spending growth
Tap or hover for details. All values are also available in the data table.
Source
Nominal sector spending forecasts, not adjusted for inflation. Selected sectors are not an additive total and are not observations of gift-card sales or redemption.
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| Category | % year-over-year spending growth |
|---|---|
| Electronics | 4.2 % year-over-year spending growth |
| Apparel | 2.5 % year-over-year spending growth |
| Jewelry and accessories | 2.6 % year-over-year spending growth |
The calendar was another consideration. Black Friday fell on November 29, shortening the interval before Christmas compared with 2023. Mastercard expected this to shift more holiday purchases into December, even as retailers promoted their offers earlier.
Economist Michelle Meyer said easing inflation and lower interest rates could support purchasing power. The projections measured spending across payment methods without adjusting for inflation. They were forecasts for the 2024 season, rather than final sales results or Mastercard's corporate revenue.
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Maya Bennett
Maya Bennett covers customer loyalty, employee rewards and incentive programmes for Gift Card News.