Mastercard forecast that Canadian retail spending would increase 2.2% during November 1 to December 24, 2024. Its November 20 SpendingPulse outlook expected physical stores to outperform online sales as consumers searched for promotions and ways to manage holiday budgets.

Electronics was the strongest of the highlighted gift categories, with spending projected to rise 4.2%. Mastercard pointed to new devices and lower prices as possible drivers. It also forecast 2.5% growth for clothing and 2.6% for jewelry and accessories.

The calendar was another consideration. Black Friday fell on November 29, shortening the interval before Christmas compared with 2023. Mastercard expected this to shift more holiday purchases into December, even as retailers promoted their offers earlier.

Economist Michelle Meyer said easing inflation and lower interest rates could support purchasing power. The projections measured spending across payment methods without adjusting for inflation. They were forecasts for the 2024 season, rather than final sales results or Mastercard's corporate revenue.