Mastercard's September 13, 2021 holiday outlook forecast a 7.4% increase in U.S. retail spending excluding vehicles and gasoline. It expected online spending to grow 7.6% and store sales to rebound by 6.6% compared with 2020.
The company anticipated early promotions as retailers and consumers responded to supply-chain and staffing concerns. Electronics, clothing and department-store merchandise were highlighted among categories commonly purchased as gifts, with collection services and contactless payments expected to remain important.
The original forecast graphic gives the category comparisons below for November 1 to December 24. Each bar is expected spending growth against the same 2020 window. The large rates reflect a pandemic-era comparison; they do not measure gift-card purchases or establish the eventual sales result.
Selected US holiday sector forecasts for 2021
Forecast published September 13, 2021 for November 1-December 24, 2021 versus the same dates in 2020.
% year-over-year spending growth
Tap or hover for details. All values are also available in the data table.
Source
Forecasts, not final results. Selected categories are not an additive partition; department stores are a retail channel while other labels describe merchandise sectors. These are reported spending-value changes, not unit growth. The release does not specify an inflation adjustment.
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| Category | % year-over-year spending growth |
|---|---|
| Apparel | 45.9 % year-over-year spending growth |
| Department stores | 14.8 % year-over-year spending growth |
| Electronics | 13.2 % year-over-year spending growth |
| Jewelry | 59.0 % year-over-year spending growth |
| Luxury excluding jewelry | 92.8 % year-over-year spending growth |
For an extended 75-day holiday window, Mastercard projected 6.8% retail growth and 7.5% online growth. It said savings accumulated during the pandemic and government stimulus could support shoppers' capacity to spend.
Luxury goods and jewelry were among the categories the company expected to maintain momentum. The projections described expectations before the 2021 season. Mastercard's standard and extended holiday forecasts used different measurement windows, so their growth rates should not be treated as interchangeable.
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Emma Carter
Emma Carter covers retail, e-commerce and the gift card shopping experience for Gift Card News.