Mastercard's Economics Institute projected 2.9% growth in European holiday retail spending for November and December 2024, excluding vehicle sales. The November 20 outlook identified beauty, clothing and electronics as important gift categories in a market still focused on value.
For the November 1 to December 24 gifting period, the institute expected electronics spending to rise 4.7% in the UK and 3.9% in Germany. Its separate Black Friday projections also pointed to relatively strong clothing demand in Hungary, Spain and the Czech Republic.
Electronics spending growth forecast for the 2024 gifting period
Selected country forecasts for November 1–December 24, 2024, compared with the same 2023 period.
percent year over year
Tap or hover for details. All values are also available in the data table.
Source
Nominal forecasts published November 20, 2024, not observed sales or gift-card sales. SpendingPulse covers in-store and online purchases across payment types, including cash and cheque. Forecast uncertainty and model details were not disclosed.
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| Category | percent year over year |
|---|---|
| United Kingdom | 4.7 percent year over year |
| Germany | 3.9 percent year over year |
| Hungary | 1.8 percent year over year |
| Netherlands | 1.5 percent year over year |
Chief Europe economist Natalia Lechmanova said shoppers entered the season with greater confidence than a year earlier but remained sensitive to prices. Mastercard linked the attention to Black Friday offers with consumers' efforts to make their budgets go further.
The analysis drew on SpendingPulse data covering nine European markets and included purchases through multiple payment methods. The spending estimates were not inflation-adjusted. The report's projections therefore described nominal growth expected for the stated periods, not confirmed increases in purchase volumes.
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Suzie Elis
Suzie Elis covers gift card products, digital gifting and distribution for Gift Card News.