Mastercard forecast 7.1% growth in U.S. holiday retail spending excluding vehicles in its September 12, 2022 outlook. It expected consumers to respond to inflation through promotions, price comparisons and trade-offs within their gift budgets.

The projection anticipated store spending rising 7.9% and online sales increasing 4.2% from the previous year. Mastercard noted that physical stores had accounted for more than four-fifths of retail spending during January through August 2022.

Clothing and luxury goods were highlighted as potential gift-category beneficiaries, with expected increases of 4.6% and 4.4%, respectively. The company also expected early offers to bring some holiday purchases forward into October, alongside strong Black Friday and Christmas Eve activity.

Economist Michelle Meyer pointed to employment, wages and remaining savings as potential support for demand. SpendingPulse measured purchases across payment methods without adjusting for inflation. These figures were the company's forecast ahead of the 2022 holiday season, rather than the final spending results.