Mastercard forecast 7.1% growth in U.S. holiday retail spending excluding vehicles in its September 12, 2022 outlook. It expected consumers to respond to inflation through promotions, price comparisons and trade-offs within their gift budgets.
The projection anticipated store spending rising 7.9% and online sales increasing 4.2% from the previous year. Mastercard noted that physical stores had accounted for more than four-fifths of retail spending during January through August 2022.
SpendingPulse combines Mastercard network activity with estimates for other payment methods. The comparison below retains the original release period and definitions; it describes retail spending rather than gift-card sales, redemption or Mastercard revenue. The public release does not give the underlying transaction count, model parameters or uncertainty intervals.
US holiday channel forecasts for 2022
Forecast published September 12, 2022 for November 1-December 24, 2022 versus the same dates in 2021.
% year-over-year spending growth
Tap or hover for details. All values are also available in the data table.
Source
Retail excluding automotive, not adjusted for inflation. Forecasts, not actual results. These are annual spending-growth rates, not the separately reported three-year changes, channel shares or gift-card results.
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| Category | % year-over-year spending growth |
|---|---|
| Online | 4.2 % year-over-year spending growth |
| In-store | 7.9 % year-over-year spending growth |
Clothing and luxury goods were highlighted as potential gift-category beneficiaries, with expected increases of 4.6% and 4.4%, respectively. The company also expected early offers to bring some holiday purchases forward into October, alongside strong Black Friday and Christmas Eve activity.
Economist Michelle Meyer pointed to employment, wages and remaining savings as potential support for demand. SpendingPulse measured purchases across payment methods without adjusting for inflation. These figures were the company's forecast ahead of the 2022 holiday season, rather than the final spending results.
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Daniel Brooks
Daniel Brooks covers payment networks, financial technology, payment security, gift card fraud and PCI DSS for Gift Card News.