Visa Business and Economic Insights forecast on October 31, 2025 that American consumers would spend more during the 2025 holiday season despite economic uncertainty. Its outlook projected a 4.6% year-over-year increase in total US retail sales, excluding automotive dealers, gas stations and restaurants, from November 1 to December 31, 2025.
After accounting for inflation on holiday items, the outlook projected 2.2% real spending growth, compared with the 2.5% Visa reported for the previous season. Separately, consumers in the October 2025 VBEI quarterly survey planned to spend an average of $736 on holiday gifts, roughly 10% above the $669 in gift-spending plans reported for 2024.
Average planned holiday gift budgets reported by Visa
US consumer gift-spending plans reported for 2024 and in the October 2025 VBEI survey.
USD
Tap or hover for details. All values are also available in the data table.
Source
Stated average budgets for all holiday gifts, not actual spending or gift-card purchases. Sample sizes, questionnaire, weighting and prior-year survey comparability are not disclosed on the public analysis. The roughly 10% change is Visa’s reported comparison.
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| Category | USD |
|---|---|
| 2024 plans | 669 USD |
| 2025 plans | 736 USD |
Visa interpreted the higher planned average as a sign that holiday shopping remained a priority despite softer confidence and slower income growth. It attributed some of the increase to consumers with more recipients and greater purchasing power, reporting that baby boomers planned a 21% increase to $855.03 on average. These were survey intentions, not completed purchases.
The survey also pointed to shopping extending across the fourth quarter: 57.7% reported starting in October, while 48% said they would do more than half of their holiday shopping online. The accessible analysis does not disclose sample sizes, exact fieldwork days, weighting or the previous-year survey method; the linked full report requires a form submission. No gift-card-specific allocation is reported.
In this article
Emma Carter
Emma Carter covers retail, e-commerce and the gift card shopping experience for Gift Card News.