Arrowhead Promotion is urging brands to review rebates, loyalty rewards, cash back and gifts with purchase as consumers compare prices during the 2026 back-to-school and holiday shopping periods.

In its August commentary, the company cites July Gallup findings that 67% of Americans thought economic conditions were worsening and 44% rated current conditions as poor. It also references NIQ's 2026 consumer outlook, in which 12% of respondents said they would remain with their usual brands regardless of price.

Arrowhead distinguishes short promotions designed to encourage a purchase from loyalty programs intended to maintain a relationship over time. It says an unnamed consumer packaged goods client ran an escalating cash incentive during July and saw higher sales, but provides no sales figures or comparison method for that example.

For back-to-school shopping, Arrowhead cites National Retail Federation research that 78% expected higher prices. Among shoppers who had completed less than half their purchases by early July,46% were waiting for better deals and 23% were spreading purchases over time. The article also cites NRF's projected$43.3 billion in 2026 K-12 spending.

The company's recommendation is to match the offer to the desired action and make participation understandable. It identifies confusing conditions and excessive steps as potential obstacles to redemption, while presenting the expected sales and retention benefits as its own assessment.