US Gift Card Market 2026: Growth, Digital Demand and B2B Distribution

US gift card demand spans consumer gifting, everyday spending and corporate rewards. Two editions of PayNXT360’s 2026 market report show why a headline value needs a date: the Q1 edition forecast $246.91 billion for 2026, while the June Q2 edition forecast $234.14 billion. Both describe market value, not the revenue available to an issuing partner or distributor. Q1 announcement Publisher’s current Q2 listing

Gift Card News' analysis of published market estimates, consumer research, incentive-program surveys and financial disclosures finds three developments shaping the market: more consumers are using gift cards for their own spending, digital distribution is becoming closely connected to redemption and loyalty, and employers remain a distinct source of demand. Physical cards continue to matter across this increasingly digital system.

The evidence also points to a practical constraint. A large value of cards sold does not automatically produce a large revenue pool for a new provider. Merchant discounts, processing costs, service obligations, fraud losses and the division of responsibilities between partners determine the economics of each program.

Market size and the 2030 outlook depend on the forecast edition

The Q1 2026 PayNXT360 databook announcement, published on February 19, estimated US gift card value at $230.48 billion in 2025 and forecast $246.91 billion in 2026 and $320.81 billion in 2030, with a stated 6.8% compound annual growth rate for 2026–2030. The publisher’s current page is labelled Q2 2026, dated June 15, and instead gives $216.93 billion, $234.14 billion and $307.24 billion respectively, with 7.0% forecast growth. The replacement page cannot corroborate the earlier figures. Dated Q1 announcement June Q2 edition

The February announcement’s narrative expresses its values in billions, but its summary table incorrectly labels the 2026 and 2030 amounts as trillions. The chart follows the explicit billion-dollar narrative. The change between editions also affects the estimated historical year, so lower Q2 numbers are a revision to commercial research, not evidence that actual sales contracted. The public material describes a proprietary analytical framework without enough underlying observations to reproduce either estimate.

Both editions cover consumer and corporate demand, open-loop and closed-loop products, and online and offline distribution. Their 2030 endpoints indicate scale under the publisher’s assumptions. They do not identify the fee income, merchant margin or addressable business of an individual provider. The public source does not supply intermediate annual observations for a continuous 2026–2030 trajectory.

Seasonal research measures a narrower proposition. NRF’s December 11, 2025 article said consumers planned to spend $29 billion on holiday gift cards and that 43% intended to purchase at least one. This was an expectation for one holiday season, not a completed annual sales count. Its short public article does not provide the fieldwork details needed to compare its respondents directly with the other surveys below. NRF holiday article

Self-use brings gift cards into everyday spending

Blackhawk Network's 2026 research offers a clear signal that gift card demand extends beyond presents. In its January survey of 2,138 US adults, 77% planned to buy gift cards during 2026. The proportion planning to buy them for personal use as part of a spending strategy rose from 31% in 2025 to 56% in 2026: an increase of 25 percentage points in stated intention. BHN also reported that 18% had bought gift cards with loyalty points, up four percentage points from 2024. BHN's June 2026 research announcement

Fiserv’s Q4 2025 Gift Card Gauge was fielded in September 2025 among more than 1,000 US consumers aged 18 or older, with a stated margin of error of ±3%. It found that 77% considered budgeting easier with gift cards and 63% said they used a received card within a month: 23% in under a week and 40% after a week but before a month. These are reported experiences, not evidence that gift cards improve every household’s finances. Fiserv article Full Q4 Gauge

For retailers and rewards providers, the commercial implication is a broader purchase occasion. A product designed only around birthdays and December gifting can overlook customers seeking a particular brand, a loyalty redemption or a way to organize near-term spending. Balance visibility, clear redemption instructions and a useful selection of everyday merchants become part of the proposition.

Digital gift cards grow while physical cards retain a role

Fiserv's 2025 annual survey, fielded in November and published in April 2026, reported a 68% preference for digital rather than physical gift cards, compared with 66% in 2024. Its reported redemption-channel split was 56% through mobile apps, 24% in stores and 19% on websites. Those findings come from a survey of more than 1,000 US consumers; they are not a transaction-weighted estimate of digital gift cards' share of market value. Fiserv annual survey

BHN's January 2026 study, in contrast, described physical cards as the preferred format overall, while almost a third of respondents wanted both physical and digital options. Different samples, questions and fieldwork periods can produce different preferences. Combining the percentages into a single national digital-share estimate would conceal those differences. BHN research

TSG and Bank of America's survey of 1,002 US adults, conducted on February 5–10, 2026, provides another view: 36% reported buying only physical gift cards in 2025, 27% bought both formats and 13% bought only digital cards. These three groups are not a complete 100% allocation of all respondents. TSG and Bank of America study

Delivery preferences also matter. In that study, 52% favored email for digital gift card delivery, 25% were comfortable with email or text, 12% favored text and 11% chose neither. Digital distribution therefore requires more than an SMS-only journey. A buyer, recipient and redeemer may use different channels, and the experience needs to connect them. TSG and Bank of America infographic

Brand availability matters across store and online channels

InComm's review of more than 6,500 recent gift card shoppers surveyed during 2025 found a 20% year-over-year increase in the number of closed-loop shoppers who went online when they could not find the desired card in a store. It also reported a 23.5% increase in the average number of digital gift cards purchased. The sample required a gift card purchase within the previous 90 days, so it represents recent purchasers rather than all US adults. InComm's 2025 shopper review

The same InComm review reported a 74% rise in the number of closed-loop shoppers turning to gift card sales websites and a 37% rise in those visiting websites for brick-and-mortar retailers when their desired card was missing in store. These count-based changes identify where customers searched, but the unpublished base counts prevent calculation of the actual share moving between channels. InComm’s full annual review

For a retailer, an unavailable brand can therefore become a lost distribution opportunity. For an online provider, the same situation can create a customer acquisition opportunity. The operational question is whether advertised inventory is actually available at the required denomination and can be delivered reliably. Catalog size alone gives an incomplete answer.

Employer rewards create a separate B2B buying case

The TSG and Bank of America study found that 81% of consumers would like gift cards from an employer, while 41% had received one. The 40-percentage-point gap signals interest, but it does not measure employer budgets or predict how much additional spending will occur. TSG and Bank of America